Bitcoins

As Howard Marks said, first the innovators followed by the imitators and finally the idiots. This though has stuck in me every time I evaluate an investment decision. It was the case for Bitcoin too. I first heard about investing in Bitcoin in early November 2017 when the price was rallying and had touched $7500. Not knowing much on what was the fair price I curiously asked question on the value. Got a bunch of funky answers by the millennial speculators and I resisted the temptation to add myself to the list.

By end of 2017, prices had doubled and and at some point touched $ 20000. I seriously felt I am missing something. 

But then experts everywhere were rubbishing this as the bubble of the century, comparing it with Tulip mania, governments started banning the exchanges and putting out caution statements, and my father-in-law asked me What is Bitcoin and how it works?...And then the prices started to crash, every expert and persons who missed the rally (including me) feeling vindicated. I must say it’s been one hell of a rally and crash...

Now where is the bottom? I do not know but it will be when no one is concerned about the price of Bitcoins and the world has forgotten about the latest financial innovation and caught on to the next ones....till then it will be volatile!!!

PS: I have purposely not gone into the merits of valuing Bitcoin since I still do not understand it completely and cannot imaging how it will be used. My low IQ could be blamed for this behaviour.